Complexity Science

"Chaos encompasses order, and order chaos. Clarity and peace interweave elegantly with difficulty and battle, and spirit is the sinew that binds all together. From these conditions arise the billions of others with which we live." Lao Tzu 5th Century BC

What is a complex adaptive system ?
A system or situation is described as complex if it has many independent 'agents' interacting with each other in a variety of different ways. These systems seek to balance order (stability) with chaos (turbulence) and exist in a 'zone of complexity', often referred to as the 'edge of chaos'. All living things exist in this zone, as systems within systems.

Organisations are complex adaptive systems. The sheer richness and diversity of the actions of the 'agents' as they self-organise, makes the results of their interactions unpredictable and are therefore described as emergent (not planned). See Principle No.5 Expect the Unexpected. For example, the flocking of birds, stock market values and organisation cultures tend to emerge from a myriad of simple judgements and choices that give rise to complex behaviours that could have been expected, but nevertheless take us by surprise.

The greater the number of interactions and variations, the more complex things become.

Why must we learn to live with uncertainty ?
In the days prior to Chaos Theory, it was assumed that values were irrelevant to scientific thinking, and all uncertainties could eventually be predicted and controlled. We now accept that reality is a place where facts are uncertain, values are in dispute, the stakes are high and decisions urgent. The only way forward therefore is to find a way of managing the complexity by learning how to live with uncertainty, making common value commitments, engaging in meaningful dialogue and accepting that more than one perspective can be equally valid. See Principle No.2 Knowing what things are like for others.

This new take on management will be one unlike any other you have experienced as a public servant. You are being challenged to adopt new values, where you make open commitments as a self-organising agent of change and choice - not a cog locked-in to a bureaucratic machine. This page offers you conceptual tools drawn from the Complexity Sciences to help you manage in an unpredictable environment by making better choices in all aspects of your work, be they about people, processes or purpose.

Why is complexity found under the surface ?
When you come across things that seem simple and ordered on the surface, they can often hide complex relationships and difficult choices underneath. For example, we are now seeing the restructuring of public services, which will require changes in value systems and management styles. Vast amounts of energy get consumed in these complex and often hidden interactions. Just think how much energy gets wasted formulating performance targets that contribute nothing of value for the customer.

Take the concept of "dissipative structures". It explains why more energy and information is needed to sustain new structures than the ones they replace. This is because large amounts of energy get consumed in a change process. Energy gets diverted away from implementing the new order to deal with the chaos that it inevitably generates. Research shows that on average we spend 10% of our time channelling our energy proactively and 90 % reacting to external events that tire and depress us.

To manage change effectively we must be aware of the energy is consumes, as people try to make sense of the new order and what it will mean for them. Too often we just expect people to react like chameleons, and quickly adapt to the new conditions they find themselves in. But change starts with feelings and thoughts, eventually ending up in action.

Why are relationships more important than events ?
People are complex adaptive systems, and live in complex adaptive ecosystems composed of teams, groups, networks, families, organisations, etc. To make sense of them managers need to understand how living systems work.

Seeing interactions as complex and emergent requires an understanding of how the quality of our relationships affects the nature of our interactions and our contribution to their results. Many managers have grasped the connection between global warming and climate change, but can struggle with the connection between personal learning and organisation change. It's perhaps that the connections are not always easy to see or understand. This is where new skills such as meditation can help, simply because it can help you observe or witness your behaviour, accept your emotional chaos as natural and not judging yourself by them. See Principle No. 4 If you can see it you can do it'

At first sight, the principles offered here may seem unconnected and irrelevant to problems in your working life, but their significance will emerge as you reflect on why mistakes and failures occur. It's often because you are dealing with complex adaptive systems that are both proactive and reactive. What emerges is expected, but they cannot always be predicted. With this new perspective you can begin to understand and use these insights, and the resulting tools can provide you with deep and powerful ways of developing the behaviours that you need to cope, even if you cannot actually manage the complex adaptive systems that are all around you.

Why do we fear the loss of control ?
The weather, traffic flows, people's behaviour, surprise events, your feelings, perceptions and customer responses, are all examples of complex adaptive systems interacting with each other. When you start to reflect on things you begin to realise just how much of life and work could get 'out of control'. You are constantly adapting to things around you as they change from minute to minute. We struggle to maintain control in a world that seems to be pushing us towards chaos.

This is why the management task can sometimes feel like white water rafting. Plans only seem to work well in fairly stable environments, where there is a chance of influencing future events. But in a world of instability and uncertainty, it's better to focus on what's possible now and get things done quickly. See Principle No.6 'What matters is what works. This requires agility and ability because you are dancing at the 'edge of chaos'. This is what creates tension between those working at the top, or centre of the organisation, and those working on the frontline or the edges.

What's important about being at the 'edge of chaos' ?
When people, teams or organisations operate at the 'edge of chaos' (a condition or state of mind, not a location) there is great uncertainty and the potential to lose control. Yet, order emerges from chaos quite naturally - if allowed to. This is when new patterns of interaction and new ways of doing things tend to emerge. The threat of chaos enhances your need to learn quickly and be creative. In group situations you find that new ideas are generated more easily because a more diverse range of views are expressed. This increases the possible choices available to you. See Principle No. 7 There is usually a better way.

There are always pressures pushing us away from order and pulling us towards chaos, which is why rapid change makes us feel uncomfortable. Change can be good for us, even essential to our survival, so the pressure for change is good, but it can so easily turn into a source of stress - which isn't.

Complexity then, arises through the varied connections and relationships that thrive at the 'edge of chaos'. It is a condition where feedback and emergence maintain a balance between order and chaos. This is life in the 'change zone'.

Any change contains the seeds of problems that can emerge later, and may require further change - hence the pendulum of change swings.

Why is managing complexity important ?
There is no doubt that our personal lives are becoming increasingly more complex. As a result we have to put more energy into keeping order in our lives. An explosion of information, functionality and expectation means that making the simplest of choices can be time consuming.

Paradoxically, a knowledge of complex adaptive systems can help managers simplify their organisations and their work.

In our working lives we are expected to do more, do it better and deliver it faster. The public (that's us) aren't always willing to pay for delays, misunderstandings and inefficiency. As complexity increases so can the confusion, cynicism and uncertainty. This reduces our ability to listen objectively and make sense of what's going on. We start to worry that things could get out of control because our emotions start to influence our reactions. See Principle No. 1 Small events can have big consequences.

Insights from the Complexity Sciences and research on the brain are demonstrating that we actually have very little control over what we think, feel and do. This challenges our existing thinking patterns so we deny what the Complexity Sciences are telling us.

Why is complexity below the surface ?
The problem is that denial can kill - ask any smoker. This is known as the brain's 'autopoeitic' nature. It is a process that blocks-out unpleasant thoughts in order to maintain its identity, stability and survival. It is most noticeable after traumatic events, but it happens in more subtle ways all the time. Ever refused to listen to someone ?

Dealing with complexity requires new skills, but they can
make your work simpler and life's decisions easier. For example, when you flick a switch to turn the light on, You don't give a second thought to the complex systems that generated and supplied the electricity.

Likewise, a Customer Contact Centre gives staff access to customer information from a variety of sources, which is automatically tracked and integrated. As a result, customers get a comprehensive and personalised service from a friendly and seemingly intuitive individual who can solve their problems quickly and make their life simpler. The complexity is hidden in the system behind a simple 'front-end'. Simpler management requires you to focus on the result you want and the contribution you need to make for it to happen.

Expectations must be agreed at the outset and constraints identified, so you can focus your energy on what's possible. Be clear about your purpose and you will be able to asess your capability.

Is it possible to manage complexity ?
There are three aspects that need to be considered when trying to manage complexity. They are speed, connections and intelligence.

1. Speed i.e. the time taken to process tasks or integrate feedback
As we know, the devil is always in the detail. Detail complexity is generated by having large volumes of information to deal with. We tackle this kind of complexity by sequencing, analysing, classifying and processing the data as fast as we can. This requires fast processing, making computers the best way of coping.

2. Connections i.e. linking things in new ways to reduce
costs or improve performance.
Relational complexity exists where many different types of information or options to be connected together. Linking data and perceptions together in different ways for different purposes can help make decisions simpler and options clearer. This requires judgement, for which diagrams and conversations are the best way of coping.

3. Intelligence i.e. knowledge, behaviour, attention, passion, etc.
Organic complexity emerges when free agents interact and self-organise, depending on the local rules, environmental conditions and the passage of time. These are the elements of organisational life that give events their meaning, identity and coherence. Context has a very important influence over the outcome. This requires learning, for which teams, networks and change processes are the best way of coping.

What does all this mean for managers ?
You may feel that simplicity can be achieved by managing your time better and using your common sense. Well yes, this can help, but in my experience these behaviours are not often practised. What's more, managers seem to have the 'know-how' yet resist using it because the conditions aren't right. This resistance arises because the proposed actions don't fit the uncertainties and unpredictability of the real world. As a result, the key management task is to create the conditions that will generate the interactions needed for the best solution to emerge.

It's easier for you to do what feels natural, which means you want to 'self-organise', to do what matters and what works at the time.

The seemingly disorganised manager, can also be an agile and adaptable manager. They often manage the threat of chaos by focusing their energy on only doing what is absolutely necessary to survive.

Why is survival the basis for growth ?
To develop, you first need to survive. Remember the base chakra. Hedgehogs have been extremely successful at using this strategy for millions of years. What's more it turned SENCORP Ltd into one of the most successful companies in the world. They simultaneously encourage survival and advancement activities at all levels of their business, and in their relationship with customers and suppliers. This has helped them adapt and improvise, while at the same time find time to be creative and innovate.

Many of the self -assessment tools used by organisations to improve their effectiveness, require them to balance maintenance and development activities to achieve balance in an environment of continuous change.

Why is clarity of purpose so important ?
To make things simpler, managers look for clarity and focus by seeking: clearer intentions, clearer choices, clearer motives, clearer expectations, clearer relationships and clearer abilities, with clear results in mind. See Principle No.3 Pay attention to what's important

As a public servant you are under constant pressure to think and act in more joined-up ways. But you must also be clear and focused in an environment of continuously shifting priorities. Government initiatives are forcing the pace. They expect customer value and partnership working to deliver more efficient and effective services, but can this be achieved in isolation of many other competing pressures and trends.

Experience is teaching us that reducing complexity requires an understanding of the relationships that sustain the whole system. Hence, a need for clarity of purpose.

In Birmingham City Council, the complexity of the Best Value task forced a rethink about what's meaningful and important to everyone involved (colleagues, partners, clients, suppliers, customers, councillors, citizens, contractors, etc.) This led to a more flexible and adaptive approach. As a result Best Value Reviews became bigger 'themed' reviews, enabling relationships between the parts to be understood better. Trying to control the detail in a constantly shifting environment wasn't working. But this change also failed because ...

Speed - the response was too little, too late - only tokenistic.
Connections - old ways of thinking and doing things stopped cross-boundary thinking and joint-working
Intelligence - no new knowledge or passion for change was introduced. More of the same produced more of the same.

The best vehicle for achieving simpler management in a complex environment is to focus on tools and techniques that enable those actually doing the work to make sense of things. Instead it was left to managers two or three steps removed from reality to produce a plan.

One approach now being adopted is the CLEAR Method. This simple idea (outlined below) is enabling managers and teams to focus on improving their interactions by clarifying everyone's …..

Contributions - that reflect your personal knowledge, experience and talent
Links - that enable you to help others see what they can do to help you
Expectations - that clarify what different stakeholders expect to see/feel
Abilities - that provide you with the support and skills needed to get things done
Results - that can be measured or judged by others as having value

What are the best tools for the job ?
The challenges generated by increasing complexity are forcing managers to look for ways of making their work simpler. This handbook contains a number of tools and techniques specially chosen to shift your thinking and actions, and those of your staff, as they grapple with the implications of continuous improvement or transformational change.

Simpler management is the ability to make choices and decisions that deliver meaningful change and continuous improvement. See the article Simple, Yet Complex

How managers make sense of change influences what they focus their attention on, and this determines what gets done. In an uncertain world it is wise to expect the unexpected, yet at the same time, work at shaping a shared future. This makes the future the 'means' of achieving the 'ends' required today - purposeful action. Everyone has a contribution to make, so employee involvement and open dialogue are vital ingredients.