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Risk Assessments

A risk is something that could stop you achieving your objectives. Having assessed it you can do, you then plan for it to reduce or eliminate its impact. Where this cannot be achieved, the item in question should be presented to the next level up.

The principles of corporate governance apply to both public and private organisations. It is vitally important therefore to implement risk management processes. This makes good business sense. Better management of resources brings benefits for employees and customers.

Risk management is about gathering information to make better decisions, making it more likely that objectives will be achieved. It's about being aware of the risks involved - to think about the consequences, outcomes or impact.

Assessment Questions
It is important that all leaders and managers consider risk when making decisions. Here are a few examples of the questions ypou should ask:

What is the risk in this situation ?
What could happen to the desired outcomes ?
How likely is the occurrence ?
Do the benefits outweigh the risk ?
What can we do to reduce the risk ?
Has anything happened to alter the risk ?
What plans could be put in place in case the 'event' occurs ?
Can we transfer the risk to someone else through insurance or contracting out ?

Organisations need to consider the arrangements they put in place to create an effective control environment. Accountability for risk management must operate at all levels and follow a common and clearly identified risk assessment process. These control procedures will help to mitigate risks if monitored at both a strategic and an operational level, and communicated effectively.

 

Risk Management Process

 

Establish the context
(Is it strategic or operational ?)

 
 

Identify the risks
(What could happen and how ?)

 
 

Analyse the risks
xxxxx

 
 
Determine Controls
(Likelihood and possible impact ?)
 
 

Evaluate the risks
(Compare against criteria and set priorities)

 
 

Accept the risks
xxx

 
 

Treat the risks
(Prepare and implement plans)

 

There are many approaches to identifying risk. One popular approach is brainstorming because it can be used at all levels acros an organisation. Start with an analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of the successful completeion of strtaegic and operational plans. The results should form part of the Buisness Plan.

 

Categorising the Risk
In order to help the thought process and give some structure to your brainstorm, you can consider risks under the following headings.

Professional
Social
Customer
Reputational
Environmental
Competitive
Citizen
Technological
Legislative
Contractual
Partnership
Political
Managerial
Physical
Financial
Legal
Economic

A facilitator can interview each member of the group that has been brought together to assess the risks and go through all the above headings with them. The facilitator can then bring together all the risks which then form the basis of the brainstorming session. The group then identify the top 10 - 20 which have the highest financial or reputational risk.

 

Summary of Key Risks
You can now start to put together a working document which can be reviewed on a regular basis and used as a tool to support decision-making at a senior level. Here is a suggested format.

No.
xx

Risk or
Hazard
Inherent Risk
Impact/Likelihood
Controls
xxx
Residual Risk
Impact/Likelihood
Target Risk
Impact/Likelihood

1.
xx
xx

Failure of key process

Critical/
Significant
xxxx
Satisfactory.
Monitoring
in placexx
Critial/Low
xxxx
xxxx
Critical/Low
xxx
xxx
2.
3.

Use the descriptions of impact and likelihood categories below to enter tehm into the summary above and score the risk on the matrix below.

 

Impact and Likelihood Matrix
Plot each risk assessment on the matrix by number. The gey areas are unacceptable risks and require immediate action to improve control. Acceptable risks need close monitoring and cost effective control improvements found.

Very High
High 1 2
Significant 9, 12 10
Low 3 5, 6 4
Very Low 11 8
Non-existent 7
Negligible
Marginal
Critical
Catastorphic

 

Measures of impact and likelihood
Below are descriptions of the impact and likelihood categories you can use.

LIKELIHOOD MEASURES

Description Example
Very High Is expected to occur in most circumstances
High Will probably occur in most circumstances
Significant Might occur in most circumstances
Low Could occur in most circumstances
Very Low May accur only in exceptional circustances
Non-existent Is never likely to occur

IMPACT MEASURES

Description Example
Catastrophic Medium term loss of service capabilit, adverse publicity or breaches of the law punshable by imprisonment.
Critical Short term loss of service, litigation expected and breaches of the law punishable by fines only.
Marginal Needs careful public relations with potential for complaint with breaches of regulations or standards.
Negigible No significant disruption to service with little adverse publicity and only breaches of local procedures.

 

Produce an Action Plan
The next step is to produce an action plan that will mitigate the risks identified. Having identified the controls in place they need to be entered in the Key Risk Summary above. The risk now needs to be reassessed in the light of newcircumstances. This is the residual risk which should also be entered in the summary above.

You now need to to identify if you are accepting the risk and do nothing, manage it and monitor it, or change the way tasks are undertaken to reduce the risk, eliminate it completely or transfer the risk to someone else, as in the case of insurance or contractual agreements.

 

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Last Updated 22/03/03